This TG4/Ipsos B&A poll was conducted over the phone on Monday and Tuesday of this week (18^th and 19^thNovember).  

A sample of 539 attaches a margin of error of about plus or minus four percentage points, so a degree of caution needs to be exercised when interpreting the poll findings.

In 2020 Fine Gael took two of the four seats – Michael Ring topped the poll and Alan Dillon edged Michelle Mulherin out for the second Fine Gael seat.

The remaining two seats went to Sinn Féin’s Rose Conway-Walsh and Fianna Fáil’s Dara Calleary. 

A second seat for Fine Gael is very likely again this time round, with the other three Fine Gael candidates performing well; Mark Duffy on 10 per cent, Keira Keogh on 8 per cent and Martina Jennings on 4 per cent.

The combined Fine Gael vote in this poll lines up with the party’s vote share in 2020 when they won two seats in what was then a four-seat constituency.

Sinn Féin’s Rose Conway-Walsh is well positioned to hold her seat with 13 percent of the vote.

Sinn Féin’s total vote in Mayo is 18 per cent (when you add in Gerry Murray’s 5 per cent), which is in line with their national polling figures, but below the 23 per cent the party achieved in 2020.

Fianna Fáil’s Dara Calleary is on 11 per cent and Lisa Chambers on 10 per cent.   

Combined, the Fianna Fáil vote is above a quota and they will be challenging for a second seat. 

Independent candidate, Patsy O’Brien is in contention for the final seat, on 7 per cent.

Also on 7 per Aontú’s Paul Lawless has performed above the party’s national showing at 7 percent, and is also in contention for the final seat.  

 

Alan DILLON Fine Gael	17%
Rose CONWAY-WALSH Sinn Féin	13%
Dara CALLEARY Fianna Fáil	11%
Lisa CHAMBERS  Fianna Fáil	10%
Mark DUFFY Fine Gael	10%
Keira KEOGH Fine Gael	8%
Patsy O’BRIEN Non-Party	7%
Paul LAWLESS Aontú	7%
Gerry MURRAY Sinn Féin	5%
Martina JENNINGS Fine Gael	4%
Joe DALY People Before Profit	2%
Stephen KERR Non-Party	2%
Mícheál ‘BOXTY’ Ó CONAILL Green Party	2%
Chris MAXWELL Independent Ireland	2%
Gerry LOFTUS Non-party	1%
Sean FORKIN Non-Party	*

*= 0.0 - 0.5%